economy, national debt, national security. again, what is surprising here is kwhil the wealthy are always supposed to vote for obama but taxes are the last of their important issue. >> who would have thought. thank you very much. you see the results on our website. that does it for closing bell. thank you for watching. fast money starts right now. >> up down, buy sell. this summer it's anybody's pick. the market has a case of euro-itis and it has got it bad. >> there is enough of a burden so it will have very slow to no growth over a period that is longer than we all need. and it's going to affect, you know, sort of the global economy. >> even our favorite game maker disappointed in big events>> i will go to weiss's house.

>> seriously. >> you may call it volatility. >> a traper's party. this is fast money. >> live from the market site, i'll melissa lee. continues to be confusing. there are ways still to make money. in terms of getting to the second half. >> confusing. we have heard this over and over again. i think you have to keep the approach simplistic and remember this. the trend is your friend. in particular, in an environment of uncertainty. whether it be buying or selling, you need fresh capital to break a trend. you are not going to get that fresh capital on the marketplace. look at housing and where the analysts are. one of the reasons that i own lpx is because i believe that the analysts' estimates are too low on housing itself. look at some of the buildings.

when you look at analysts' estimates, the price target on those stocks are two to three dollars below where they are trading right now. analysts have to move higher to adjust to where the trend really is. >> we are focused again on u.s. focused companies. to joe's point, we love the builders here. they continue to out-perform. we also think you can look at some of the construction names on pull backs. tex has been down about 30%. hertz is another name that you can own. this market, if it continues this way, this is a perfect environment. >> there are a lot of 52 week highs. verizon, at & t.

walmart as welt. >> it will be very difficult. you have got keep money on the table. be very tactical and be quick to take the profits. if the stocks are not working, get out quickly. >> you have to go to what's working. when you say easy money has been made in walmart. today was not a risk on day. they rallied in the lows. nobody went out and bought call stocks. even though energy reversed to some extent, nobody is transferring money into energy right now. i think what you want to do is buy the walmarts and dividend plays. the range of the market, 12.97, 13.35.

>> i want to go back to the energy stocks. they have been getting pummelled. this is the fourth straight session where oil opened and closed below 80 bucks a barrel. >> look at rent oil. look at where it was on friday. 88 bucks, below 89. look at ti. ti on friday, traded down to 78. now really roughly in the same place, maybe up about two bucks. this is favorable for the refiners. that money flow is what is aiming to reverse a trend. i don't expect you will see that

this quarter. everyone on this desk, stick with what's working and what's not working you avoid. >> i want to go ron. do you believe that perhaps the trade is too crowded in terms of what has been working. maybe it's best to look elsewhere. >> particularly in the last couple of years, we have gotten a host of indicators from commodities to bond yields that are screaming recession. the s&p is actually working better this year than over the same period last year. i am a little concerned that either we follow last year's pattern that the s&p is not telegraphing or people are too pessimistic about stocks. maybe not fully satisfactory. more action from the fed. rather than getting that opportunity in the fall like we did over the last two years we

get it earlier in the summer, it's possible that it's better to be long stocks than short them. that's the way i am thinking about it. the luxury of retailers, the financials, those that have hit new 52 week lows. right now relative to the last two years the u.s. stock market is the best performing major asset. >> good point there. let's drill down on what is working. drill down a specific stock and that is walmart. het's bring in the analysts here. certainly walmart is up 15% so far this year. let's bring in danny. great to have kwlou with us. in terms of the notion that maybe it's time you want to start looking elsewhere are you getting the sense that maybe it's a case from finally waking up and being up this year, maybe it's time to rotate out? >> it's done very well. i think it can continue to do

well. their business is getting better. that's one big thing. oil prices are done. that's a big deal. that's money directly into the ocougher ifs. you have good fendmentals with safety. >> is it more about walmart? >> it is scale more than safety it. >> i think sit economy to scale. they are big retailers. you are getting a big yield and getting comfortable that the numbers will be fine. >> when you look at walmart here, it has gone straight down. and it's gone straight up. if you back you don't see that type of move. or you have it i'm short what we

shorted today. more upside in a target than you will in a walmart. i think amazon if they start to compete head to head with walmart can really affect walmart's numbers. >> amazon can. if you look, there is an article this weekend. somebody had done a pricing study where walmart is 20% cheaper. they are doing the right stuff. we are neutral on target. it's one that we're warming up to a lot more. but walmart, i feel you get safety and a little bit of offense there. >> it was 20% on average cheaper at walmart. does walmart maintain that price advantage? does it mean paying out forever? you know what? we're going to flip a switch and

cut our prices. >> they can. walmart's margins, amazon's margins are pretty low without doing that. hay are taking in other areas right now. they could do that. but time will tell if that continues for. >> we also want to talk about best buy. its founder richard shults is exploring taking the company private. it already controls 20% or so of the shares. what's the likelihood of this. is this possible? >> i like best buy. i think it's a tough deal. it could still be a big deal. maybe this takes less capital to get it done. i think there is a better opportunity from a standpoint. i don't think that something is happening there. >> how about -- what are they going to do with all of that square footage.

can you seeson coming in? i half joked around saying that amazon, that they might take a little bit of their square footage and take a best buy. >> we put a note out this morning that 12% of today, that number is going be almost 40% by september, october. so that issue is actually going to do away. >> these guys are still doing per square foot on both revenue and operating per square foot, very strong numbers. they are testing a lot of things. there is a store in minneapolis that has a lot in there right now. looking at a higher end appliance business. we will see. they are testing a lot of different things. seems to be where they want to go. they just announced that they will roll out more of a best buy mobile concept. >> we will leave it there.

>> always a pleasure. >> where did you get that trade? >> today. >> we have seen, looking at walmart here that it has gone straight up. i was on this desk. we talked about it after the bribery scandal, would you buy it here? and i said no. we see it as pulling back as a trade. >> that "new york times" article that broke the bribery scandal, april 21. you will see what a steep slope that has been. it was the bribery bottom. you're still a believer? >> i think, you know, amazon coming home -- i mean walmart coming home. what is going on in europe? i don't really see it. >> i like the ecommerce growth. the u.s. comp growth with walmart. if you're going to short it, where is the money going to go?

i think take a look at hathaway. a great position. stock has done well. they increase their position last quarter in walmart doing well. >> here is a last point in walmart. online prices for walmart were on average 7% cheaper thap amazon. in both online and in the store, cheaper. that was eye opening to me. moving on to shares of facebook trading higher today. banks involved in the company's listing will be allowed to initiate starting tomorrow. willthis lead to a boost like linked in? back at headquarters with more on the story. i would expect that most would initiate at least the ipo prices. underwriters are normally bullish on the stock where from

it priced and look at facebook now. popped on the so-called ratings rally in the lead to when their research was actually released. facebook's was most interesting. the company disclosing weakness in mobile. that caused analysts to revise their internal estimates downward. shares being marketed at 38 bucks. morgan stanley pricing them there as well which is why wall street will be watching for ms's report closely. normally the bullishness is on top of the ipo price. that 25.52 is still trading 14% below. some say it's only up from here but tell that to the shorts. >> i am sure you will be looking very eagerly for scott to have

his report tomorrow morning. >> exactly. >> we should note that linked in on the day where analysts initia initiated. 3% gain on that day. what do you think? >> i think when you look right now the average analyst target is 20 cents below where this thing came out at. tell me in terms of the social networking space how much they actually have in figuring out how to monetize the product they are delivering. you will hear everyone talking about how they are going to monetize it. i'm sure the target will be north of where they started but i don't think it's a reason to buy it. >> you do have a momentum gain. we saw on friday with the reconstitution we saw guys buying it. maybe it has a couple of days

left. >> so you have two of these things. >> it's a training point and you're long. >> we covered that about a point and a half ago. since the deal came out and clearly the ipo did not go. so they will have to be positive on this. in the last 30 days, i think social networking has been more mainstream. >> alluded to the short sellers leaning in. what do you see in terms of the leading in. and the top three most active option

options. i think there is still a lot of skepticism. >> we are giving you a play book for the second half of the year. coming up next, city and head of commodity's research. we will tell you how you should position. and later on, want to get an education on how to whip up a stellar trade. it is sure to school you. hint hint. stay tuned. apteachers get the training... ...and support they need? schools flourish and students blossom. that's why programs like...

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yes way. well let me chip in. [ male announcer ] send money from one bank account to another, with citibank popmoney. easier banking. every step of the way. >> the bumps in coal stock seem to be never ending. simon, you say that you have been nibbling. >> a little later my friend. a better appetite on it.

it will take a little bit of positive news for this stock to move up. you can buy it here. move to $7 and. >> a little bit. wait until it gets to the 9.75 range. missed the first little pop so that it shows a little bit of confirmation. ether way is -- >> oil, copper, nat gas all trading higher. what can we expect for the rest of the year? joining us now with the second half play book is ed morris. it's always great to see you. >> sit to the surprise of a lot of traders right now.

you expect to actually average $90 a share. >> average much more than it has been averaging than the last month and a half. the summer season is a real summer season. refineries demand increases substantially between now and august. there has been a delay in refiners coming out of maintenance. we think those are coming back and there will be a pull. >> even this decline that we have seen, 100 bucks a barrel to now, was that even surprising to you in terms of this is the summer driving season and we should be seeing a pick up. . >> we didn't expect the dollar to appreciate as rapidly as it did against the euro. that additional head wind is

there. >> in texas. that's going to reduce their exports that they have. ip creases in refinery burn. so we think we could see them going down by 600 or $700,000. that will add another 300 in the day and there will be less crude in the market as well. >> what do you think the impact of the iranians import ban will

be. you get a lift from the price of oil when they get that embargo. already the iranians government is talking about them going down the sanctions are working. ed. >> i charted and maybe i'm making something of it that it's not but it looks picture perfect.

>> there are a lot of people who say no no no. this year is different. i think this year is going to be the same. we are looking for a move back to $2 or sub two by the time you get to the end of october, beginning of november. and a big play on the spread. >> i completely agree with that. i was wondering what do you want to do? what is the one thing you see that could potentially derail the move? >> there are two moves that could derail it. >> at some moment, capital expenditures are going to do it. the drill is a move from the gas side to the oil side.

and thesore regulatory environment. >> the things that go along with it. that is where the seismic issue goes. the pan in youngs town because of earthquake activity is something that is tangible. >> thanks for stopping by. >> i wouldn't touch chesapeake. it is sick. there is the chart there is that beautiful there?

it's so picture perfect. i play xco. i think it might be a little extended right now. i like it because it is levered down. >> keep in mind the july contract will expire. all trading north of 280. get out to november. >> all right. we will tell you what is really going on at a company that most analysts on the street. we are getting a channel check on food and leverage stocks including whole foods next. choose control.

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let's solve this. >> >> ha r that was mike murphy making bullish bets. you have been playing this sort of thing for a long time.

-- >> we scaled back simply because it has been a volatile market. it has opinion proven to take some off the table. i think the key thing we are looking at is the order numbers. last quarter and if you look at tolls recent earnings, order numbers are up. as long as order numbers are up and you saw the permits numbers. if orders are up, permits are up. we think new housing has a long way to go. these guys are focusing on the markets that work. you are seeing that improvement. >> you are going the supply chap.

>> i mentioned louisiana pacific at the top of the show. >> the average person that is watching this show will have more of an appetite for home depot versus the other plays. if you want that dividend play and that yield play, go to a home depot. the chart still looks okay. the home builders under pressure, it still hangs there. >> looking for supply chains, a strategy used by channel checking analysts. by as much as 7%. joining us now with the latest channel checks. jim, great to have you on the program. >> how are you today? >> great. great.

let's talk about green mountain. you are checking the office suppliers. suppliers of officers of coffee. what have you been noticing since? >> so far we continue to have a little bit of concern about the ocs channel. as far as other channels in grocery stores, we continue to pick up good volumes there. we think that is partically because of new channels for the k-cup, new channel for starbucks and you are seeing some inventories building out some of their shelf space so you have a little bit of pull there. >> i see. and then also when it comes to retailers like bed bath & beyond, when the report came out it was a disappointing quarter.

>> i tell you, not specific to the bed bath and beyond channel. we really are not to a point. it's a seasonal product. we definitely expect that as we get into the hotter months. >> is kroger my best way to play organic? a am noticing that a lot of these are broken down. should i play celestial? kroger? what is the super market chain that gets organic besides whole foods. >> i always offer them unfi. they are the top distributor of natural organics to whole foods

and they have safeway. unfi is responsible for distribution of the organics products through conventional grocery stores and independent chains. >> it will be very attractive to conventional grocery stores if they really want to start building out their space. >> we like the fresh market. sort of a miniwhole foods. do you like it? and is there a possible acquisition target? >> we definitely like the fresh market. they are benefitting from the same type of positive catalyst. i think our only concern with the fresh market is the

california markets are going to be a new. . >> causing a bit of heartbreak but overall they are in the right space. as far as the acquisition party, i think that is a definite possibility. close to 100, 110 stores. they have got plenty of room to grow. i think there have been some analyst reports that have suggested a company in california. >> we have to leave it there. just a quick scroll through the other calls in the show. burger king, texas road house, annie's and dean foods. >> dean foods has performed incredibly well. >> let's bling back an old

favorite here. pops and drops. >> i think you can buy hog here. it's been down. you look at the recent pull back. it's on the simple fact, i think it can go down here. they are taking market share. >> up 4%. >> that space continues to move higher and higher. to me, that is the best play in the space right now. that is the exposure tonight general fertilizer. >> gdx, mike? >> the gold miners, etf is down. down close to 1%. a lot of people have looked at the miners and thought maybe they needed to play catch up to gold. >> ron? >> the talk of news corps

spitting off its print assets. a lot of newspaper companies went higher. and with warren buffet, everyone is looking for a way to monetize. seems like that is the craze at the moment. >> another big popper. up 7%. >> supreme court rules on obama care on thursday. >> regardless of what the ruling comes out with on thursday. i would probably wait on this. you are so close to this ruling. just wait. >> pop here for big lots. >> big lots pop. not a lot of news, actually. not a lot of news out of it. >> and a pop on the spice girls. you may have given up all hope of seeing them back together but they are rekwlu nighting to write a musical based on their

songs and girl power. >> this was my wedding song, too. and by the way, they look better now than they did back then. >> i agree. i want their secrets. >> who is your favorite spice girl? >> all of them. look at this. >> sporty. >> he is a back street guy. >> by the way if you want to be in the audience, you have got to get your tickets soon because the show is set to go this fall. start waiting in line. we have got big banks in the street getting one metal that you probably never thought of and how you can get in on the trade. more "fast money" straight ahead. ♪ i'm making my money do more. ♪ i'm consolidating my assets. i'm not paying hidden fees or high commissions. i'm making the most of my money. and seven-dollar trades are just the start. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. and i'm loving every minute of it.

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>> welcome back to fast money. new york city's time square. already we saw an interesting trade. you might be thinking that people would be betting on a rebound but the best was in

november. one by two put spreads. what does that mean? somebody was making a very big bet that the stock could gret as low as 17. if you take a look at this company's financials, you can begin to understand why. the forecast for revenues and earnings is actually lower. i think right now people still see a lot of trouble. they are not seeing it spinning out of this any time soon. >> of course you can get more "options action." next right here, word hitting the street that news corps could be considering splitting. david reporting the company has been working on the plans for months and the original announcement was going to come on thursday. is this more about short term sentiment? analyst at rbc capital marks. >> thanks for having me. >> when we think about separate

companies, what sort of multiple would you assign that? what is it most comparable to in the marketplace now? >> the best comp is something like disney. discovery would be a good comp as well. those are both considered very high quality assets. >> and the newspaper business does generate a lot of cash. is there anything about spinning off the newspapers that should cause investors to rethink the evaluations of the industry? >> i don't think so. to me, there is far less implications for the newspaper on the street than there is for news corps. >> okay. so in terms of the split, we saw the pop today in news corps shares overall. what does this enable either of

the separated companies to do that would be acreytive to shareholders. >> sometimes stocks move on it. being one of the lowest to the highest multiples in the group. the overhang is dissipating. the concept that rupert's goals are not always aligned with shareholders. this brings you closer and closer to a point where it seems that his are aligned with yours. already looking at this trade, they have not finalized it, this announcement. after this move up, do you see

buying the stock here? do you see more upside? it seems like the newspaper industry is a dead, slow growth industry. >> again, if this was purely about earnings, it's really a financial engineering issue on a small amount of earnings, but i think you could get a bigger move because the multiple is going to expand. a lot of secular characteristics. you get more on this alone. i'm not really sure. >> we don't like the stock. >> thanks for your time. a force to choose, what would you say? disney or entertainment -- >> oh. >> i think if you look at news

corps, you split the companies up and look at -- easily by disney. >> hitting on all cylinders. they are just clicking. >> coming up, we have an apple related bull market in a metal that might not yet be on your lay dar.

coming up next hour on "mad money," he is scanning over details -- >> investment banks betting on a bull move you probably have not heard of. surging sales are driving the metal's price higher.

>> thanks for having me. >> in terms of lithium prices, how can investors track what the prices are doing? >> tough to do. we have actually learned to attract some of the shipping costs that is recorded by insurance companies in chile because a lot of the material are shipped through augusta and chile and that is a proxy that we use for covering the price but there are a few companies that report the price. >> there are very few pure play ways. i am curious if companies are securing their own supply of the metal by buying stakes in some of the producers directly. >> they are starting to. you are starting to see some of the companies especially turn to mining companies because the four producing majors.

>> a lot of the excitements are sur roupding. these electric vehicles will move to a new type of battery where right now lithium is only 1%. >> it's more looking at a con dwlom rat like sqm. fwu question really becomes why is it that no u.s. corporations are involved in this if this is so much excitement. >> it's a good question. i have attended a couple of conferences recently. none of them yet is jumping at the material. they are not that concerned yet about long term supply yet the japanese and koreans are. >> and one quick question, john.

there is one pure play company. on the smaller side of things, tlh is the ticker here. >> the rating is buy and it's a 655 target. >> all right. got to leave it there. hope to see you again soon. does this intrigue you? >> it always worries me, particularly when you hear them say we could not get the supply. >> i own the different etf. not the one you talk about and you don't see the performance. i think you will see other technology take the place of lithium where they thought it would be the home run. >> but there is tlh which is a company. that was a good point. coming up next, class is in session. one of our traders making an

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>> time for trade of the day.

please school us on what you are trading today. >> the show is definitely on school today. decent earnings and increase in expectations today. it is obviously very, very controversial. it is starting to look good. look at the education stocks. they may be coming back into favor. >> would you ever get into this space? >> when he says it that way, it makes it sound sexy. >> i never made it out of eighth grade. >> he is a sucker for an accept. >> i do the reverse on my resume. i never got any degrees. let's start there. >> first move tomorrow when we come back.

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>> >> time for final trade. >> calls for a lot of activity. cheap. i like it. >> i like the brokerage group. i think they are all getting inexpensive. >> ford. >> tfm. fresh market. >> tbx. long. >> joe? >>